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Hey guys
I want to draw yr attention to the following article which is so interesting and pro.but I beg to differ the 1st, as matter of fact, the subject,namely.
Apple: Why The Recent Drop IsUnjustified
the drop has nothing to do with the term justified, or unjustified.....................
Introduction
Over the last 2 months, Apple (AAPL) has droppedfrom $700 to $547.5. While I wasn't a huge fan of investing in Apple at $700,the recent drop makes me somewhat bullish. As I will argue in this article, thedrop is unjustified, and I expect Apple to return to $600 or higher within acouple of months.
Why Apple has dropped
I think there are3 reasons why Apple has dropped. Two of them are related to Apple's most recentquarterly report, and the 3rd is related to President Obama
.
Apple's grossmargin guidance of 36% disappointed analysts. Most likely, they had expected aguidance of 39-40%, as the December quarter (which I will refer to in thisarticle as Q4 2012, even though Apple calls it Q1 2013), should benefit from apositive product mix; Due to the release of the iPhone 5, total iPhone salesare expected to increase from roughly 27 million in Q3 to roughly 47 million inQ4.
Since the iPhone has a gross margin of 50%, Apple's total gross
marginshould (ceteris paribus) increase in Q4. However, the guidance of a 36% grossmargin indicates a decline of 4.5%.
Tablet sales weredisappointing; With just 14 million iPad shipments in the most recent quarter,Apple's market share dropped from 70% in Q2 2012 to 50% in Q3 2012.
As analysts had expected15.3 millions iPads sold, thenumbers were below Expectation.
During thepresidential campaign, President Obama proposed to increase the capital tax rate, and this may have caused investors to unload their Apple shares to avoid paying higher taxes.
Understanding Apple's gross margin guidance
I think the 3rdreason is a short-term effect. The fundamental value of Apple isn't determinedby a potential increase in the capital tax rate.
Also, I am not particularly worried about the lost market shareof the iPad. Apple has recently launched an iPad Mini and the iPad 4 is expected to be released duringNovember. Both have received very favorable reviews, and I expect them to sell very well.
But the gross margin guidance is quite worrisome. Apple hasn'thad a sub 38% gross margin quarter since 2009, so that brings us to the nextquestion. Why does management expect the gross margin to decline to 36%? Afterhaving the studied the most recent quarterly earnings conference call I have found five main reasons:
Management expects a stronger dollar
The iPhone 5 is more expensive to produce than the previous models.
New iMac, Macbook Pro 13-inch, iPod Touch and iPod Nano havehigher product costs as well.
With the addition of the iPad Mini to the lineup, Apple expectsincreased tablet sales, which have lower gross margins than Apple's average gross margin.
Favorable items benefited Apple in the most recent quarter, but those are non-recurring.
Most of the reasons management listed are realistic and make alot of sense, and as you can see in the below graph the average revenue periPad sold has decreased since Q1 2010. It will most likely decrease furthergoing into the December quarter as Apple has dropped the price of iPad 3 to$370 and launched the iPad Mini.
May I advise u it's a long article, reason of which it has been partially pasted.
The rest can be found by clicking on the link which I advised above.
Notwithstanding anything stated, conclusion is the essence. In consequence thereof, I am pasting it:
Conclusion
Unfortunately for Apple, the competition is catching up. Applehas seen it necessary to build more expensive models while cutting prices; notexactly a recipe for high gross margins. But the 36% target is just too low,and it is based on extremely pessimistic assumptions. Going forward, Apple willprobably have a difficult time returning to gross margins of over 40%, but Idon't think they necessarily have to in order to obtain earnings growth. Theirnew devices (iPad 4, iPad Mini, iPhone 5) have all received very favorablereviews, and I have no doubt that they will make new sales records.
A common saying is: buy when other investors sell. While I thinkthe term is somewhat overused, I think it makes sense in this case. When Applewas priced at $700 I was slightly bearish on the stock. As it went down to$630, I was somewhat neutral/slightly bullish. At the current price level I amdecently bullish. I probably won't buy it yet (as I need to be very bullishcompared to just "decently").
However, if you considered buying thestock at $700, I think today's price of $547 is a much more attractive offer.
Enjoy it,
g. nite
R
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שחקן מעוף 25.06.2025, 13:18צהרים טובים.
כפי שציינו במהלך החודש ואף בסקירה האחרונה, ביוני שחקני המעוף לא היו נוכחים כלל. 35% בלבד מסך
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