After a chaotic week for markets, this coming one will be a short week as markets in the US are closed today for Presidents Day.
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Last week, the Dow hit a record high each day, though the most notable upward moves came Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday’s close also marked the fifth straight day that each of the three major US equity indexes hit a record, the longest streak since 1992. And this milestone prompted a tweet from, of course, President Donald Trump.
Last week, the theme of diverging attitudes towards Trump from the market and the political establishment continued. And likely will for some time.
As Bespoke Investment Group wrote in a note to clients on Friday, “There couldn’t be a more inverse correlation between the media hysteria and the action of the stock market since Trump won back in November.”
Since Trump’s election, the S&P 500 is up 9.7%. Only JFK had a better 100-day post-election performance among newly elected presidents going back to FDR’s initial election in 1932.
Looking at this week’s main events, earnings will continue pouring in with Tesla (TSLA) highlighting the week, though the rush of retail earnings should also be closely watched after last week’s better than expected retail sales figures.
Dow members Home Depot (HD) and Walmart (WMT) will be the highlights on the retail side, but this week will also give us results from Macy’s (M), Kohl’s (KSS), Nordstrom (JWN), Gap (GPS), and J. C. Penney (JCP).
On the economic data side, Wednesday’s afternoon release of the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting are likely to have the market’s attention, particularly in the wake of last week’s testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
Many have long looked for the Fed to make a firmer mention of how it views any potential fiscal stimulus out of the Trump administration, but in a note out on Friday, Ethan Harris at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said, “We expect only a brief discussion of risks from fiscal policy given that there is little clarity on the potential policies.”
Elsewhere, we’ll get updates on consumer confidence, the housing market, and both the services and manufacturing sectors of the economy.
What corporate America is saying
Fourth quarter earnings season is almost over.
According to data from Credit Suisse out Friday, S&P 500 earnings in the fourth quarter are tracking for 8% growth over last year. Expectations for 2017 earnings, meanwhile, now stand at 10.3%, down a bit from the 11.2% growth forecast at the beginning of this year.
The biggest topic of discussion, as is the case basically every earnings season, hasn’t been Donald Trump, but the impact currency markets are having on profits and revenues. Managements simply care more about what affects them here and now than what may or may not come out of Washington.
As Brian Belski at BMO Capital Markets wrote in a note out earlier this month, “There is a very good chance that the year of surprises that 2016 represented will likely roll over into 2017. After all, investors have been climbing the wall of worry for eight years and counting.”
But Trump — and the four major pillars of his economic proposals, tax reform, regulation, fiscal stimulus, and new trade deals — is still a big topic of conversation.
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