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While most of the market seems to be getting behind stocks these days, even allowing for the occasional blip, there are of course some bearish folks out there. Not just bearish, but extremely bearish, and willing to fly in the face of the rest of the market
:
Edwards outlines the thinking behind his incredibly gloomy outlook:
Gold corrected 47% from 1974-1976 before rising more than 8x to US$887/oz in 1980. A steep correction is normal before the parabolic move…holding gold is a bet against central banks competency and given their track record thats certainly a bet Id be happy to still take.
These are certainly bold calls, but Edwards is undaunted that he’s swimming against the tide. As he writes:
Doomsday? SocGen Predicts S&P to 450, Gold at $10,000
the term doomsday is synonymous with Armageddon yep.While most of the market seems to be getting behind stocks these days, even allowing for the occasional blip, there are of course some bearish folks out there. Not just bearish, but extremely bearish, and willing to fly in the face of the rest of the market
:
With some rare exceptions…analysts don’t like to stand out from the crowd. It is dangerous and career-challenging. In that vein, we repeat our key forecasts of the S&P Composite to bottom around 450, accompanied by sub-1% US 10y yields and gold above $10,000 [an ounce].
That’s Albert Edwards, of Societe Generale’s global strategy team, in a note published today. He adds that bond yields will go “much, much higher” in the next three to five years, while U.S., U.K. and German yields will “converge to Japanese sub-1%.”Edwards outlines the thinking behind his incredibly gloomy outlook:
My working experience of the last 30 years has convinced me that policymakers’ efforts to manage the economic cycle have actually made things far more volatile.
Their repeated interventions have, much to their surprise, blown up in their faces a few years later.
The current round of QE will be no different. We have written previously, quoting Marc Faber, that “The Fed Will Destroy the World” through their money printing. Rapid inflation surely beckons. But that will not occur without firstly a Japanese-style loss of confidence in policymakers as we dive back into recession and produce dislocative market moves.
As for gold, Edwards argues that (his belief in) a recession is just around the corner bodes well for the precious metalTheir repeated interventions have, much to their surprise, blown up in their faces a few years later.
The current round of QE will be no different. We have written previously, quoting Marc Faber, that “The Fed Will Destroy the World” through their money printing. Rapid inflation surely beckons. But that will not occur without firstly a Japanese-style loss of confidence in policymakers as we dive back into recession and produce dislocative market moves.
Gold corrected 47% from 1974-1976 before rising more than 8x to US$887/oz in 1980. A steep correction is normal before the parabolic move…holding gold is a bet against central banks competency and given their track record thats certainly a bet Id be happy to still take.
These are certainly bold calls, but Edwards is undaunted that he’s swimming against the tide. As he writes:
There are some ever-present truths in this business. Economists usually forecast a return to trend growth and will never forecast a recession. Equity strategists tend to forecast the market will rise 10% each year and will never forecast bear markets.
wow and if he is right what am I gonna do – invest in shorts, puts or gold or maybe some real estate?????
This gentleman reminds me of somebody ..........yep JA .........You r so pessimistic, both of U
hv an enjoyable evening
be happy
R
This gentleman reminds me of somebody ..........yep JA .........You r so pessimistic, both of U
hv an enjoyable evening
be happy
R
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